The Russian government has lowered its forecast for oil production from 560 Mt to 517 Mt (-8% on previous forecast) in 2021 and to 548 Mt in 2022 (-2%); forecasts for 2023 and 2024 have not changed. In addition, the country should produce 391 Mt of coal in 2021 (-14% compared to a previous forecast), 390 Mt in 2022 and 2023 (-16% and -18%, respectively, on previous forecasts), and 420 Mt in 2024 (-14%). Where gas production is concerned, Russia is now expected to produce 698 bcm of gas in 2021 (-6.9%), 743 bcm in 2022 (-2%), 773 bcm in 2023 and 795 bcm in 2024 (unchanged); LNG production is still expected to average 30.1 Mt in 2021.
According to the Polish gas transmission system operator Gaz-System, Poland’s gas demand is forecast to increase by 60% over the next 10-13 years, from nearly 21 bcm in 2019 to over 30 bcm. The country will use gas as a transition fuel before switching to nuclear and renewables. In 2040, gas should account for 30% of Poland’s power mix, followed by wind (30%), nuclear (16%) and solar (5%).
According to a draft electricity plan released by the Vietnamese Ministry of Industry and Trade, Vietnam will need about US$320bn to develop its power sector in 2021-2045, including US$235bn for electricity and US$85bn for the grid. The supply of commercial electricity is forecast to reach 491 TWh in 2030 (+87% compared to 2019) and 877 TWh by 2045 (+265%). The country’s total capacity should amount to 137 GW in 2030 (+145% compared to 2019), with 29% from wind power, solar and renewable energies, 27% from coal-fired thermal power plants, 21% from gas thermal power, 18% from hydropower, 4% from imports and 1% from storage devices. In 2045, Vietnam’s installed capacity is expected to reach 277 GW (+395% compared to 2019), including 44% from wind power, solar and renewable energies, 24% from gas thermal power, 18% from coal-fired thermal power, 9% from hydropower, 2% from imports and 3% from storage devices.
According to the Bulgarian power transmission system operator Electricity System Operator (ESO), Bulgaria had 1.1 GW of solar power plants and 0.7 GW of wind capacity at the end of 2020, accounting for about 20% of the country’s installed capacity. 77 MW of solar capacity was added during the year and another 114 MW should be connected in 2021.